FINANCIALS: Raiffeisen Results: Russia & ECB Pressure To Dominate

Raiffeisen Bank (RBIAV: A1) results are 30-Jul. Spreads have gyrated this year following the collapse of the deal to sell its Russian and Belarusian businesses and exits from these countries, along with the ECB’s pressure to exit, will likely dominate proceedings.

• RBI reported last (on 2-May) and, much as the equity market took it in its stride, spreads widened 69bp on the day. The bank suspended group guidance as the situation around the ECB and Russia was so unclear and pro forma (ex-Russia) figures were published that show a big step down in CET1, revenues and profits (15-25%).
• Russia is very clearly going to dominate the newsflow. The ECB has maintained pressure on Eurobank with operations there, to reduce exposures – RBI’s Russia & Belarus sale processes now appear moribund, following US and European pressure. The US has threatened ejection from USD access, reportedly, so speed of Russian exit is vital for the bank.
• Spreads have gyrated wildly this year. They’re 35bp wider since last results (but we’re 69bp wider on the day), 68bp tighter YTD and have tightened 16bp in the last month (€IG banks -10bp). The equity has drifted lower most of the year but put in 3pp of outperformance in the last month.
• Estimates are oddly slightly better; this may simply be a function of the analyst community not yet publishing full “ex-Russia” figures or BBG not capturing them. For the record, stated consensus is 1-2% better on revenues and similar on earnings.

Results are due pre-market with a 1300 (London time) conf call, we believe.