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FINANCIALS: SocGen: Results Don't Look A Spread Mover

FINANCIALS

SocGen (SOCGEN: Baa2 neg/BBB/A- pos) are more reasonable on closer examination but there’s a cost overrun which is likely to feature on the call. Expectations weren’t high running into these figures but there’s little divergent enough from expectations to really see this as a spread material event.

  • Credit stats: loan losses came in at 26bp (-1bp q/q, marginally weaker than consensus), the NPL ratio is up 10bp which is actually marginally better than expected. CET1 is in line. So, overall, perhaps better than the headline view and solid credit metrics.
  • Revenues are 2% ahead of consensus but costs are similarly higher meaning pre-tax is a marginal miss. French retail missed consensus (negative for BPCE and French peers) but this was rescued by strong equity and primary IB performances (good for UBS).
  • Mgmt are going to get tough questions on the cost overrun on the call, we fear and that will likely dictate the direction of consensus moves; our sense here is little change. There are no explicit guidance changes that we’ve spotted.

Conf call is scheduled for 0930 (London time) at: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/noqsn9dr 

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