MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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FINANCIALS: StanChart Results 30-Jul: US Rate Impacts

FINANCIALS

Standard Chartered (STANLN: A3/BBB+/A) 2Q24 are 30-Jul. Spreads improved after last results gave comfort on, amongst other, China and CRE exposures but have done little in the last month. US rate impacts on revenues are likely to be the other key focus, we feel.

  • 1Q24 (on 2-May) were ahead of consensus on both revenues (by 5%) and loan losses (by 23%) and the equity was up 9% on the day (spreads only came in c.2bp). Guidance was maintained but remains above consensus. Credit quality was almost not a topic on the call.
  • News around Chinese CRE exposures (the big fear during 1Q24) has slowed significantly recently, which should be helpful but, outwith starting a crypto trading desk, newsflow has been light. The CFO did use the term “green shoots of growth in lending” at a conference last month, so mgmt continues with cautious optimism, it seems. Iran money laundering stories have persisted, too.
  • Spreads are 31bp tighter since those results (€IG banks -4bp) so have significantly outperformed, whereas the equity has tracked the sector.
  • Estimates are relatively unmoved for that kind of 1Q beat; revenues +2% and EPS +1%, in broad terms.

Results are 0515 (London time) with an 0800 conf call at: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/qw8pcuur/

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