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FINANCIALS: Swedbank Results: Good But Expectations Were High (Just Like SEB)

FINANCIALS

Swedbank (SWEDA: Baa1 pos/A-/AA-) results headlines look better on the loan loss write-back and CET1 beat but expectations were already relatively high (like SEB). So, really very similar to SEB with strong capital, improving macro and good operating metrics but against a backdrop of spreads that have out-tightened Euro index averages.

  • Credit stats: loan losses were a net write-back (Sweden, Latvia), driven by releases and macro scenario changes (similar to SEB). Non-performers are only up 1bp (to 53bp). CET1 ratio is 20.1% (cons: 19.6%), a buffer of c.5pp with a target range of 1-3pp.
  • Revenues are 2% ahead of expectations, costs are 1.6% weaker but that loan loss write-back means pre-tax is, therefore, nearly 9% better than consensus.
  • Outlook: slides allude to “recovery in sight” but this is the same as at Mar-24 results. There appear no other changes to any commentary in the releases.

Conf call is 0845 (London time) at: http://swedbank-live.creomediamanager.com/de01b807-b171-4d9a-aeed-18f5c298099c

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