FINANCIALS: Two Misses (COF, DB), Three Beats (BNP, UCG, SANTAN) - DB A Key Risk

Busy morning of financials reporting with a range of outcomes. COF and DB missed, BNP, UCGIM and SANTAN all beat. DB spreads look like a downside risk this morning, 

• Capital One (COF : Baa1 rev. down/BBB/A-) misses on rising charge-offs, lower revenues – tough comp for Barclays (reports 1-Aug).
• Deutsche Bank (DB: Baa1/BBB/A-) headlines look disappointing; revenues were solid, but loan losses and costs overran, meaning a pre-tax miss and Postbank provisions driving a net loss. Spreads had also been strong into results, so downside risk here, we feel and a negative lateral for Commerzbank and the smaller German issuers.
• BNP (BNP: Baa1/A-/A+) results look good with a revenue and loan loss beat, driven by the CIB which is, conversely, supportive for Barclays and perhaps a bigger delta than its US cards exposure.
• Unicredit (UCGIM: Baa3/BBB-/BBB-) results also look positive with a 5% revenue beat (!) and upgraded guidance. Spreads have tightened into these results, but figures still appear supportive. Good for Intesa, too.
• Santander (SANTAN: Baa1 pos/A-/A-) results looks good on revenues and loan losses with upgraded revenue guidance, too, driven by Spain. A positive for BBVA and the remaining Spanish issuers (BKT and SAB have already reported). Less positive for Lloyds in the UK vs. yesterday’s message from SAB. Spreads have been strong but these figures shouldn’t derail that.