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Finnair (FOY; NR/BB+ S) Moody's sovereign rating announcement after the close

TRANSPORTATION
  • Please note Moody's has scheduled a Finland (current rating: Aa1; Outlook Stable) rating update (generally issued after 21:00 London).
  • Finnair receives a 2-notch uplift from BB- standalone on State of Finland (Aa1/AA+/AA+; Stable) which has a 55.7% ownership. CoC put (at par) for anyone who gains control and causes a 1-notch downgrade from any agency (if in IG needs to be HY downgrade).
  • We keep the cheap view on the Finnair29s currently at Z+230 which we have had from issuance at +200.
  • Reminder Finnair does have some of the weakest margins - i.e. our view is ratings/spread value and contingent on government support.

We don't see any rating changes to Finland since 2016. Recent affirmations/remarks;
  • Fitch (May' 24); "Recently announced fiscal consolidation measures highlight the Finnish government’s public finance consolidation efforts, Fitch Ratings says. But continued weakening in the macroeconomic backdrop and persistent spending pressures still present challenges to stabilizing Finland‘s debt/GDP ratio over the medium term."
  • S&P (Oct '23); "We expect economic activity in Finland in 2023 to be broadly flat. Real GDP growth will pick up and average 1.4% through 2026, as domestic demand recovers"
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