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First take: 4 key points

BOE
  • 2 votes for 50bp - not hugely surprising but a lot who were looking for a 25bp hike were looking for an 8-1 vote (with Dhingra unch).
  • September will see the APF Oct23-Sep24 target vote - as we and most others had expected. Although this was still not certain going into the decision.
  • Guidance largely unchanged but adds the line "The MPC will ensure that Bank Rate is sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term"
  • The mean forecasts remain close to 2% - and the modal forecasts see some decent upward revisions. Quite a few had been looking for downward revisions - so that will surprise quite a few.
  • The BOE kept the 15 day conditioning assumption.
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