Flash GDP (Q4 2019) Preview - 07:00.....>

GERMAN DATA: Flash GDP (Q4 2019) Preview - 07:00 GMT

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- Bbg Cons: 0.1% q/q (sa), 0.3% y/y (wda); Prev (Q3): 0.1% q/q, 0.5% y/y 

- German GDP is forecast to grow by 0.1% q/q in Q4, matching Q3's rate of

expansion, after an increase to a five-quarter high of 0.5% in Q1 2019 

- Annual growth accelerated to 0.5% in Q3 after Q2's six-year low and markets

expect a decline to Q2's level. 

- Q3's uptick of q/q GDP was driven by net exports and private consumption,

however retail sales and IP performed poorly in Q4 and exports remained subdued.

- Survey evidence in Q4 was weak with the mfg PMI remaining in contraction,

while the ESI dropped to 2013 levels in Q4

- Even though surveys showed Jan improvements, it was only small increases from

relatively low levels, showing no signs of a solid upswing in economic growth.

- While some downside risks have eased recently, new ones have emerged such as

the coronavirus, which might affect global supply chains to which the German

economy is particularly exposed.