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  • Increasingly the dovish and centrist members of the MPC are focusing more on growth data and deemphasising labour market data.
  • In many ways the PMI data are becoming one of the most UK data releases once more for markets (albeit still less important than inflation).
  • At present the market is so focused on any metric that indicates the UK economy may be slowing and the risks posed to both growth and the fiscal side that downside surprises could see asymmetrically larger moves.
  • After the Eurozone prints saw upside surprises to manufacturing there may be a similar bias on UK expectations above the 47.0 consensus.
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  • Increasingly the dovish and centrist members of the MPC are focusing more on growth data and deemphasising labour market data.
  • In many ways the PMI data are becoming one of the most UK data releases once more for markets (albeit still less important than inflation).
  • At present the market is so focused on any metric that indicates the UK economy may be slowing and the risks posed to both growth and the fiscal side that downside surprises could see asymmetrically larger moves.
  • After the Eurozone prints saw upside surprises to manufacturing there may be a similar bias on UK expectations above the 47.0 consensus.