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FLOW SUMMARY: Focus Turns From Core CPI Gain to PPI, Weekly Claims

US TSYS
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  • Treasuries look to finish well off lows following a volatile first half on an unexpected gain in Core CPI inflation metrics.
  • Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are -2.5 after the bell at 115-12 vs. 115-02 low, curves flatter but off lows, 2s10s -3.190 at 1.216 vs. -1.535 low.
  • U.S. core CPI surprised higher in August on a housing inflation rebound, rising 0.281% last month against expectations for a 0.2% increase. Headline CPI added 0.187%, in line with expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. That brings the 12-month rate for headline and core CPI inflation to 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
  • Owners' equivalent rent rose 0.50% last month, its strongest increase since January. Rent inflation slowed a tad to 0.37% from 0.49% the previous month. Core services prices excluding housing costs, or supercore CPI, accelerated to a 0.328% increase over the month from 0.207% in July.
  • Projected rate cuts through year end remain soft vs. pre-data levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -28.5bp (-32.7bp), Nov'24 cumulative -65.1bp (-72.5bp), Dec'24 -105.3bp (-114.5bp).
  • While chances of a 50bp rate hike has fallen off, markets still have Thursday's PPI and weekly claims data to absorb.
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  • Treasuries look to finish well off lows following a volatile first half on an unexpected gain in Core CPI inflation metrics.
  • Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are -2.5 after the bell at 115-12 vs. 115-02 low, curves flatter but off lows, 2s10s -3.190 at 1.216 vs. -1.535 low.
  • U.S. core CPI surprised higher in August on a housing inflation rebound, rising 0.281% last month against expectations for a 0.2% increase. Headline CPI added 0.187%, in line with expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. That brings the 12-month rate for headline and core CPI inflation to 2.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
  • Owners' equivalent rent rose 0.50% last month, its strongest increase since January. Rent inflation slowed a tad to 0.37% from 0.49% the previous month. Core services prices excluding housing costs, or supercore CPI, accelerated to a 0.328% increase over the month from 0.207% in July.
  • Projected rate cuts through year end remain soft vs. pre-data levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -28.5bp (-32.7bp), Nov'24 cumulative -65.1bp (-72.5bp), Dec'24 -105.3bp (-114.5bp).
  • While chances of a 50bp rate hike has fallen off, markets still have Thursday's PPI and weekly claims data to absorb.