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Focus Back on Moderating Jobs Ahead Next Week's CPI

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures have bounced off session lows, see-sawing back near post-Jobs data highs at the moment as focus turns back to moderating jobs gains (and down-revisions to the two prior releases) ahead of next Wednesday's CPI (MoM 0.3% est vs. 0.1% prior; YoY 3.1% vs. 4.1% prior).
  • Curves holding near recent highs (2s10s +8.419 at -87.571) with cooler rate hike expectations supporting the short end. Sep'23 10Y futures currently +10 at 110-29.5 vs. 111-00 post-data high. Consistently better steepener crosses have been reported across the curve.
  • Futures had reversed support/traded lower post-data w/ attention on strong labor market, AHE firm at +.4, workweek extended to 34.3 hours should keep the FED on track to hike at the next FOMC meeting on July 26 (92% priced in)
  • Projected rate hiked receding through year end again: September cumulative of +28.6bp (30.5 high) at 5.360%, November cumulative at 34bp (37.3 high) at 5.415%, December cumulative 29.3bp (34.4 high) at 5.368%. Fed terminal at 5.42% in Nov'23.
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