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Focus On BCRP Interest Rate Decision, Brazil, Colombia CPI Data

LATAM
  • The central bank of Peru is expected to continue with its gradual easing cycle next week, with another 25bp rate cut on Thursday. Meanwhile, Brazil, Colombia and Argentina are all due to release May CPI inflation data, while the central banks of Chile and Colombia will publish their latest economist surveys.
    • The BCB will publish its usual Focus survey on Monday, where attention will be on the CPI and SELIC rate forecasts, which have been rising in recent weeks.
    • On Tuesday, Brazil IPCA inflation for May is expected to rise to 3.87% y/y, from 3.69%, while Mexico IP data for April will also cross. Elsewhere, the BCCh will publish its latest economist survey and Colombia May consumer confidence is due.
    • Colombia will publish May CPI data on Wednesday, where analysts expect the headline rate to stay at 7.16% y/y, even as core inflation moderates further to 7.81%.
    • Focus on Thursday turns to the BCRP interest rate decision, with the central bank expected to cut by another 25bp to 5.5%, following the return of CPI inflation to target. Brazil April retail sales figures are also due, along with the BCCh traders survey. In Argentina, analysts expect monthly CPI inflation to slow further in May.
    • Colombia April IP and retail sales data are due on Friday, along with the latest BanRep economists survey.
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