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Focus On Close Call ECB Decision Following PBOC RRR Cut

EMERGING MARKETS
  • ECB Decision: Conflicting data, limited insight from policymakers since the last meeting, and the very marginal nature of hiking by 25bp or holding following 425bp in policy hikes this cycle, make the September ECB rate decision a tough call.
    • ECB-dated OIS shows a little under 17bp of tightening for today’s meeting, with terminal deposit rate pricing sitting bang on 4.00%. A reminder that Tuesday’s (single-sourced) hawkish ECB sources piece from RTRS biased pricing higher yesterday, tipping the odds of a hike beyond 50/50 in the market’s view.
  • As noted, the People’s Bank of China announced a 25 basis-point cut in the reserve requirement ratio on Thursday to offer long-term liquidity and support the economic recovery. The central bank will “implement prudent monetary policy at an effective and accurate pace, and ensure rational credit growth,” it said, pledging to better support key areas and ensure basic stability of the yuan exchange rate.
  • President Joe Biden dismissed House Republicans’ move to open an impeachment inquiry, saying the GOP has long been looking for an excuse to bring charges against him. “I tell you what, I don’t know quite why, but they just knew they wanted to impeach me,” Biden said Wednesday in his first comments on the Republican probe.
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