Focus On Jobs Data, Survey Data This Week Too

There are a number of surveys released this week but the focus is likely to be on Thursday’s jobs data for December.

• With employment growth surprising to the upside over the previous two months, the December data is likely to be monitored closely. Bloomberg consensus is currently expecting a 15k rise in employment with the unemployment rate steady at 3.9%. While there could be some payback for the strong October/November data, a result around this level would be less than half the 3-, 6-month and 2023 averages.
• Today the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge for December is released. It moderated sharply in November to 4.4% from 5.1%. With petrol prices down over 5% in December, the gauge could have eased further at year end. The inflation expectations measure for January is due on Thursday.
• December ANZ job ads also print today and they have been trending lower.
• CBA household spending insights for December are also on Monday and will be the first indicator to watch for the size of the payback in consumption after the strong November which was boosted by Cyber Week sales. This series has a high correlation with ABS retail sales due on January 30.
• Westpac consumer confidence for January is out on Tuesday. The measure has been depressed but with no RBA meeting this month and inflation continuing to ease, it may show some recovery.