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Focus On June Economic Activity Data This Week

PERU
  • No macro data are due today, but later this week June economic activity and July unemployment will be published on Thursday. Analysts currently expect GDP growth to slow to 1.6% y/y in June, following two months of 5%+ growth. Nonetheless, the economy will still have grown by around 4% y/y in Q2, putting it on course to expand by more than 3% this year.
  • At its monetary policy meeting last week, the central bank noted the improvement in all coincident indicators for activity and most expectations indicators. However, the decline in core inflation to around the top of the target range and fall in headline inflation towards the 2% target still prompted it to resume its easing cycle with a 25bp cut. And in a press conference on Friday, BCRP chief economist Armas said that further cuts are not ruled out. Analysts expect the BCRP to continue with gradual rate cuts through H2, with risks of a more front-loaded adjustment.
    • For a full MNI review of the meeting, with analyst views, see here.
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