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Focus on Mexico, Colombia Rate Decisions, Copom Minutes, BCB QIR Due

LATAM
  • Central banks take the focus again next week, with BanRep expected to cut further, while risks to the Banxico decision are more balanced following the recent FX weakness. In Brazil, the Copom minutes will be published on Tuesday, followed by the quarterly inflation report on Thursday. Mid-month CPI data for Brazil and Mexico are also due.
    • On Monday, the BCB will publish its usual Focus survey, with attention on inflation expectations, which have been steadily increasing. Brazil will also publish May current account figures, while in Mexico mid-month CPI data are expected to show a pick-up in both headline and core inflation. Chile PPI data will also cross, while Argentina Q1 GDP is expected to fall 5.2% y/y.
    • Focus on Tuesday turns to the Copom minutes, where attention will be on any discussions around the balance of risks to inflation or the potential for hikes, following the unanimous decision to hold rates.
    • Brazil mid-month IPCA data are due on Wednesday, where the market sees the headline inflation rate rising back above 4% y/y. Outstanding loans and central government budget data for Brazil will also cross. In Argentina, Q1 current account figures will be released.
    • Attention turns back to the BCB on Thursday, when it publishes its June quarterly inflation report, while in Mexico the central bank is expected to remain on hold at 11%, following the recent sharp sell-off of MXN. Mexico will also publish May unemployment and trade data.
    • On Friday, BanRep is expected to deliver another 50bp cut to 11.25%, as core CPI inflation continues to decline, albeit in a gradual manner. Elsewhere, Brazil will release May fiscal data, while Chile publishes activity figures for May, including IP and retail sales. Argentina April economic activity is also due.
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