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Focus Survey Developments In Line With More Moderate BCB Easing This Week

BRAZIL
  • Two elements of today’s BCB Focus Survey of economists are in line with the BCB potentially moderating the pace of easing this week, which would be contrary to the prior guidance of the Copom. First of all, Selic rate expectations for both 2024 and 2026 have edged up, but also 2025 year-end inflation expectations rose, emphasising that medium-term expectations remain de-anchored. A full rundown of the survey can be found here: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/publications/focusmarketreadout
  • The Selic rate decision takes the focus on Wednesday, with a slight majority of analysts currently expecting the Copom to pare the easing pace, cutting the Selic rate by 25bp to 10.50%. The full MNI preview will be published tomorrow. Elsewhere, Trade Balance and Retail Sales data will also cross this week.
  • The recent USDBRL move lower appears to be a correction, however, last week’s bearish extension resulted in a break of 5.0678, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement - this would open 4.9984.
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