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Followed EGBs Lower, 10Y Supply And Fedspeak Ahead

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have followed EGBs lower overnight on little by way of clear headline drivers although German IP did fall by less than expected.
  • Another light data docket sees focus on 10Y supply, after yesterday’s relatively smooth digesting of front end issuance with the 3Y trading through by 0.2bps.
  • Cash yields sit between 0.5-2.5bp higher on the day, bear steepening but with 2s10s at -35.5bps within yesterday’s range after flattening.
  • TYM4 has seen a day’s low of 108-27+, back at the low end of yesterday’s range to extend the reversal from 109-09, on strong volumes of almost 380k.
  • Yesterday’s climb exposed notable resistance levels at 109-06+ (channel top from the Feb 1 high) and 109-08+ (50-day EMA) in a renewed look at 109-09+ (snap reaction after payrolls on May 3). Renewed upward pressure could open 109-22+ (Fibo retracement of Feb 1 – Apr 25 bear leg).
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET), Wholesale trade sales/inventories Mar/Mar f (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Jefferson (1100ET), Collins (1145ET), Cook (1330ET) – see STIR bullet
  • Issuance: US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction - 91282CKQ3 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auction (1130ET)

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