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FOMC Aftermath, PPI, Weekly Claims

US TSYS
  • Treasuries are moderately lower at the moment, upper half of narrow overnight range following yesterday's steady FOMC policy annc, tempered by split rate cut guidance between one to two by year end. Yesterday's lower than expected CPI shows progress, builds confidence, it's still not enough to warrant looser policy at this time, Chairman Powell said at the post-FOMC presser.
  • Sep'24 10Y Treasury futures are currently trading -3 at 110-07 vs. 110-09 high. Initial technical resistance at 110-21.5 (June 12 high) followed by 110-27.5 (1.00 proj of the Apr 25 - May 16 - 29 price swing). On the flipside, support holds at 109-16/109-00.5 (50-day EMA / Low Jun 10 and key support).
  • Cash yields are running mildly lower: 5s -.0071 at 4.3089, 10s -.0098 at 4.3063%, 30s -.0075 at 4.4677%, while curves look flatter: 2s10s -0.532 at -44.532, 5s30s -0.128 at 15.612.
  • Focus turns to this morning's PPI final demand and weekly jobless claims at 0830ET. Not out of blackout until tomorrow, NY Fed Williams attends a moderated discussion w/ Tsy Sec Yellen hosted by the NY Economic Club at 1200ET.
  • Rounding out the week's Treasury supply, $70B 4- and 8W bills auctioned at 1130ET followed by $22B 30Y Bond auction reopen (912810UA4) at 1300ET.

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