FOMC Minutes: Deutsche And TD See Nov Taper Expectations Solidifying

Deutsche expects the September FOMC minutes (out later Wednesday at 1400ET) to "solidify market expectations" for a November taper announcement.

• "Most officials" on the FOMC have expressed support for tapering to start next month, "which should be reflected in the minutes. However, we also expect discussions to make clear that while the economic conditions for ;substantial further progress' would soon be met as of that meeting, they remain 'well away from satisfying the lift off test' in the words of Chair Powell."
• Deutsche will be looking for "any clarity" on whether the taper pace will be on a per meeting or per month basis.
• They'll also look for signs of how FOMC participants' economic outlooks are evolving, esp given the upgrade to inflation in September's projections.

TD expects the minutes "to effectively confirm plans for tapering to start at the November meeting, conditional on the labor market continuing to show "progress" and financial conditions not suddenly tightening significantly".

• They see the September jobs report as still strong enough for the Fed to carry through on the taper.