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Forecast Projections Largely As Expected

RBA

The RBA SoMP hasn't produced a large market reaction. AUD/USD is tracking higher, last around session highs at 0.6585. But this appears to main reflect a positive risk tone, particularly in the equity space.

  • The RBA's forecast projections to end 2025 are in line with what was outlined in Tuesday's monetary policy statement. See this link for the key projections made in August from the SoMP.
  • Near term GDP growth expectations were a touch firmer, but slightly weaker out to mid next year (1.25%, versus 1.50% prior). The near term unemployment rate was nudged down, but unchanged out over the forecast horizon (expected to hold steady at 4.5% by end 2025).
  • It was a similar back drop for inflation (relative to the May projections), headline back to 2.75% by end 2025, likewise for the trimmed mean.
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