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FOREX: Another Punchy USDJPY Range, Daily G10 Adjustments Contained

FOREX
  • Sensitivity to the plethora of US data and movements in major equity benchmarks kept the Japanese Yen in significant focus Thursday, with USDJPY exhibiting another punchy 140pip range on the session.
  • Early USDJPY weakness was exacerbated by a soft US ADP release, and the pair reached as low as 142.85, an impressive sell-off from the 147.21 highs registered just on Tuesday. However, slightly better jobless claims data and an all-around solid ISM services report helped USDJPY extend its intra-day recovery, rising the best part of 1% to a 144.23 session high.
  • Late weakness for equities dragged the pair back down into negative territory on the day and keeps markets on high alert ahead of the key US employment data on Friday, where short-term parameters appear well defined ahead of the event. On the downside, 142.85 and 141.70 provide support, while stronger US labour market dynamics should bolster the recovery towards the 20-day EMA at 146.20 and the week’s high at 147.21.
  • Even greater volatility for MXNJPY was a key component of currency developments on Thursday, where a souring global and domestic picture helped USDMXN to rise as highs as 20.1491. This pair looks set to close at the highest level since late 2022 and developments for both the Yen and equity markets on Friday may be key to extend the peso’s woes.
  • Despite the late equity weakness, the likes of EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD are all moderately rising on the session as traders await tomorrow’s US data for the next driver of greenback direction.
  • Nonfarm payrolls growth is expected to see a partial bounce in August to 165k after a particularly soft 114k, with continued questions over the extent to which the latter was driven by one-off factors. This is expected to be a key ingredient to the Fed’s Sep 18th decision.
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