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FOREX: EURGBP Surges, Civil Unrest & Positioning Pose Further Upside Risks

FOREX
  • Last week’s close back above the July 1 high and notable pivot at 0.8500 marks an important development for EURGBP, cancelling the recent bearish theme and highlighting a potential short-term reversal.
  • The cross rose as high as 0.8596 and resistance is now found at 0.8621, the May 9 high. Above here, 0.8645 the Apr 23 high marks a key resistance.
  • The severe deterioration of global risk sentiment is likely weighing on high-beta GBP and despite the moves remaining relatively limited compared to some G10 counterparts, outperformance this year and stretched positioning could provide further short-term headwinds for sterling.
  • Furthermore, it is also worth noting that PM Starmer has called an emergency security meeting in a bid to quell several bouts of civil unrest that has rocked communities across the UK.
  • More broadly, political risks will remain in focus, with the October 30 budget likely to receive intense scrutiny as the new labour government attempts to shore up the UK’s finances. 
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