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FOREX: GBP Inches to a New Cycle High

FOREX
  • GBP modestly outperforms, gaining against all others in G10 as UK market participants return from the bank holiday on Monday. While activity is picking up, overall volumes remain below recent averages as the Tuesday calendar leaves little to inspire markets in either direction.
  • Nonetheless, GBP outperformance has resulted in a new cycle high for GBP/USD at 1.3247, keeping bullish conditions intact and reinforcing the current trend set-up. The pair has traded through two important resistance points; 1.3142/43, the Jul 14 ’23 high and the top of a bull channel drawn from the Oct 4 ‘23 low. This strengthens bullish conditions and paves the way for a climb towards 1.3261, a Fibonacci projection. 
  • JPY is at the other end of the table, slipping against most others as US yields inch higher in the belly of the curve. We note overnight demand for AUD/JPY upside protection via options, with markets seemingly targeting the horizontally-trending 200-dma of 99.98. Most legs are shorter-dated, targeting an expiry of mid-September, therefore rolling off well ahead of the next BoJ, RBA meetings.
  • Tuesday trade is headlined by August US consumer confidence stats and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index - although broader focus remains on the European inflation picture later in the week, with prelim German, French and Eurozone-wide CPI estimates. ECB speakers today include Knot and Nagel.
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