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FOREX: USD Rallies to Best Levels Since Early May Post-NFP

FOREX
  • US yields rose 10-15bps across the curve on the back of the stronger-than-expected US labour market report, prompting a ~0.8% rally in the BBDXY which reached its highest level since early May.
  • The stronger parts of the survey dominated when it came to initial market reaction, with hawkish repricing driven by the much firmer-than-expected NFP release and strong wage numbers. 
  • USDJPY rallied as much as ~150pips, briefly piercing 157.00 to narrow the gap to key resistance at 157.71, the May 29 high. While we have moderately eased off the day’s best levels, price remains 0.6% higher and above the June 4 high.
  • The kneejerk move lower in equities aided weakness in the likes of AUD and NZD, though the recovery in the major benchmarks to pre-data levels since then has not impeded downside momentum for the antipodeans. AUDUSD looks set to close below 0.66 for the first time since May 8, a handle whereby the 50-day EMA also closely intersects. A clear break here could signal scope for a deeper retracement to 0.6558, the May 8 low.
  • NZD is the weakest performer in G10, closely followed by NOK and SEK which have each recorded losses of around 1.4% against the greenback.
  • Price action in EURUSD has been comparatively more subdued, though the pair still sits 0.75% lower, just above the 1.08 handle at typing. Support to watch lies at 1.0788, the May 30 low, a breach of which may call into question the recent bull cycle. 
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