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FOREX: Very Limited Greenback Reaction as Fed Rate Cut Bets Modestly Trimmed

FOREX
  • Currency market adjustments remain limited following the US CPI data with the most interesting moves seen in G10, highlighted by an impressive 100 pip swing for USDJPY. The USD index remains close to pre-data levels as Fed rate cut bets for September have been modestly trimmed.
  • Headline and core M/M were below expected medians with the supercore basically in-line. Core goods was very soft (-0.32%) driven by even more deflation in used cars than expected (-2.3%), Otherwise categories were above-expected including core services (+0.31%), OER and Rents which explains the immediate turnaround post release.
  • LatAm currencies had very minimal reaction and are mixed as the dust settles. USDMXN has extended its intra-day decline to 0.9%, perhaps owing to the limited moves seen on Tuesday despite the sharp advance for major equity benchmarks. As noted, lows around 18.80 and the 20-day EMA at 18.7676 represent initial support. In contrast, USDCLP stands 0.3% higher since the open, broadly respecting the relatively narrow 930/935 range seen in recent sessions.
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