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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FOREX
G10 FX trends are little changed in the first part of Wednesday dealing (outside of modest yen gains). Focus is squarely on the upcoming US Presidential Debate, which kicks off in a little under an hour. The BBDXY USD index was last just under 1237, close to end Tuesday levels from US trade.
- The last Presidential debate between Trump and Biden saw a sharp spike in Trump election odds. This can be seen in the chart below which plots intra-day trends from June 28 for Trump's election odds (per PredictIT) and the USD BBDXY index. A Trump Presidency is generally seen as USD positive, given the potential for reflation via fiscal stimulus (tax cuts) and hawkish trade policy. At the current juncture, the election race is too close to call (see this link).
- Spillover to US Tsys, equity futures will be gauged for USD risks as well.
- In terms of moves, USD/JPY is back to 142.10, around 0.25% stronger in yen terms. We have BoJ speak coming up in a little over an hour. Downside focus in the pair will be eyed if we can test sub 142.00. Carry over momentum is potentially evident from Tuesday trade, where global growth fears weighed heavily on oil prices and aided a further move lower in US yields.
- In the cross asset space, US equity futures sit 0.15-0.20% weaker, while US yields are down, although losses aren't much beyond 1bps at this stage.
- An RBA speech from Assistant Governor Hunter is coming up. AUD/USD is little changed, last near 0.6650. NZD/USD is down a touch last near 0.6145.
Fig 1: Last President Debate Saw Trump Election Odds Rise, Aiding USD Sentiment
Source: PredictIT/MNI - Market news/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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