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Forint Underperforms Despite More Favourable Risk Backdrop

HUF
  • EURHUF continues to trade close to its earlier high, and is up 0.18% on the day, despite lower US yields and sustained equity strength providing some relief to the forint’s regional peers. A Reuters report citing an S&P analyst who claimed that proposals to reform corporate lending rates could undermine investor sentiment likely provided some upside momentum to EURHUF earlier today amid few other notable domestic catalysts.
  • HUF underperformance has resulted in a ~0.1% move higher in PLNHUF today, which closed back above the 50-DMA last week. That cross is now at its highest since Jan 02 and has recorded an impressive 2% bounce off of Thursday’s lows.
  • Goldman Sachs note that “a more dovish monetary policy mix will weigh on [HUF] carry relative to 2023.” As a result, they have closed their recommendation to be long PLN and HUF vs CZK and rotate to a long PLNCZK recommendation (with a target of 5.90 and a stop of 5.55).
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