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Forint Weakens Alongside Regional Peers as Attention Turns to US Inflation Print

HUF
The most recent uptick in EURHUF coincides with weakness across CE3 FX and a recovery in both the USD index and US yields off their intraday lows. A near 2-year high in Hungary’s GKI Confidence Index has been unable to offer the forint any reprieve, though EURHUF price has been contained within yesterday’s ranges so far today.
  • While attention will undoubtedly turn to the US inflation print as the key short-term driver of price action today, one eye will be on the domestic CPI print tomorrow, where analysts are expecting the headline figure to decline from +7.9% y/y in November to +5.9% in December. The NBH meet next on Jan 30.
  • Given the central bank appear to be set in maintaining its 75bp rate cut pace, a softer-than-expected US inflation number and any potential dovish Fed repricing print could prompt some HUF strength given Hungary’s still-favourable carry profile.
  • A reminder of EURHUF technical levels: key support is marked at 375.62, the Nov 14 low. Initial resistance is found at 380.96, where the 50-day EMA intersects today.
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