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Forward Rates Are Rising Again Following July CPI Print

POLAND
  • On Wednesday, NBP policymaker Eryk Lon wrote in an article that interest rate increases could be considered if the November projection shows that inflation would remain above the 3.5% upper tolerance band for an alarmingly long period.
  • At this stage, the majority of the NBP board (including Governor Glapinski) still aims to keep interest rates low while the economic recovery is taking place as the uncertainty remains elevated.
  • As a reminder, CPI inflation came in higher than expected in July, up 5% YoY (vs. 4.7% exp.), far above the 3.5% upper tolerance band.
  • Forward rates have been rising in recent days following the positive surprise in inflation; FRA 6Mx9M is currently trading 54bps above Wibor 3M, up from 18bps in mid-July, implying that traders have been pricing in an early NBP hike.
  • Polish Justice Minister Zbigniew Ziobro said earlier that Poland should not remain in the EU 'at all costs', following the recent series of legal disputes.
  • There are no important economic data coming out today.
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