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France In Focus; Citi Does Not Expect Downgrade

RATINGS

Among other ratings reviews after hours today (see 1547GMT bullet), Fitch reviews France (AA) - of potential interest given the "negative" outlook.

  • In the previous review in May, Fitch kept France's rating unchanged, but lowered the outlook to negative from stable, given COVID-related deterioration in public finances.
  • Citi wrote yesterday that it does not expect a downgrade: "The negative outlook was imposed on 15 May on worsening public finances due to COVID. However, we expect the rating agency to wait to assess government's plans 'to consolidate meaningfully after the coronavirus shock'. Further, since the change in outlook, the improved backdrop on PEPP expansion and Recovery Fund agreement, reducing EMU borrowing costs, should also argue against a downgrade."
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