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French-German Day-Ahead Discount Narrows

POWER

The German and French day ahead base-load contracts declined on the day as downward pressure was placed amid high renewable forecasts. But France fell slower than Germany amid less nuclear availability – leading to the French-Germany discount narrowing on the day. German wind is expected to drop on 3 July, while French wind will remain firm – which could widen the discount.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €85.68/MWh from €91.89/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot closed at €52.19/MWh from €52.50/MWh on the previous day.
  • No negative prices in French and German power for delivery on 2 July were recorded for any delivery hours on the day.
  • But hourly prices in Germany were seen as high as €115/MWh for hour 20-21 compared to €74.64/MWh for the same hour in France.
  • But the French-German day-ahead baseload discount narrowed to €33.49/MWh from €39.39/MWh on 1 July.
  • German wind output is expected at 13.40GW, or 21% load factor on 2 July, before falling to 9.30GW, or 14%, on 3 July before climbing sharply to 20.5GW the next day, according to Spot Renewables.
  • German power demand is forecast to be between 40.02-63.12GW on 2 July up from 37.34-62.7GW forecasted for 1 July 29, data from Entso-E show. Demand is anticipated to remain at around this level for 3 July.
  • Average temperatures in Berlin are expected to be slightly below the 30-year norm of around 19C over 1-5 July before climbing above on 6 July. Maximum temperatures are expected between 18.5-33C over 1-10 July – which could spur a rise in cooling demand towards the middle of the month.
  • In contrast, French wind output is expected at 3.73GW, or 19% load factor on 2 July, before being between 3.69-5.71GW, 19-29% over 3-4 July – which could weigh down prices on delivery.
  • France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 69% of capacity on Monday, down from 70% on Friday, according to Bloomberg calculations using data from grid operator RTE.
  • EdF has started its Chooz 2 unit and halted its Nogent 1 and Golfech 2 reactors.
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