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French, German Day Ahead Drops on Low Weekend Demand

POWER
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The German and French day-ahead base-load contracts edged down on the day as lower power demand over the weekend weighed, while reduced wind and a drop-in French nuclear lent support. This trend could change from the beginning of next week as wind forecasts point to comparatively low wind in both countries, likely supporting power prices, coupled with rising power demand from the weekend.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €93.24/MWh from €108.04/MWh in the previous day. Peak load prices were seen at €73.80/MWh from €93.08/MWh.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €75.15/MWh from €75.30/MWh in the previous day. Peak load prices were seen at €58.78/MWh from €66.91/MWh.
  • Despite the fall, no negative hourly power prices were recorded in both countries.
  • German wind output is expected at 1.70-4.71GW, or load factors of 3-7% over 17-18 August before being at 3.54-9.09GW over 19-20 August, according to Spot Renewables. This is likely to support power prices to early next week from the weekend.
  • German power demand is forecast to average between 41.5-44.2GW over 17-18 August, down from 52.3GW forecast for Friday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then increase between 51.3-52.0GW over 19-20 August.
  • In contrast, French wind output is expected at 2.01-3.72GW, or load factors of 10-19% over the weekend before being at 10-14% load factors over 19-20 August– which could keep France at a discount to Germany.
  • France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 67% of full capacity on Friday morning, down from 68% on Thursday.
  • However, the 1.3GW Cattenom 3 and 880MW Bugey 4 are expected to return over 16-18 August, with the 1.3GW Cattenom 4 back online on 19 August, according to Bloomberg.
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The German and French day-ahead base-load contracts edged down on the day as lower power demand over the weekend weighed, while reduced wind and a drop-in French nuclear lent support. This trend could change from the beginning of next week as wind forecasts point to comparatively low wind in both countries, likely supporting power prices, coupled with rising power demand from the weekend.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €93.24/MWh from €108.04/MWh in the previous day. Peak load prices were seen at €73.80/MWh from €93.08/MWh.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €75.15/MWh from €75.30/MWh in the previous day. Peak load prices were seen at €58.78/MWh from €66.91/MWh.
  • Despite the fall, no negative hourly power prices were recorded in both countries.
  • German wind output is expected at 1.70-4.71GW, or load factors of 3-7% over 17-18 August before being at 3.54-9.09GW over 19-20 August, according to Spot Renewables. This is likely to support power prices to early next week from the weekend.
  • German power demand is forecast to average between 41.5-44.2GW over 17-18 August, down from 52.3GW forecast for Friday, according to Bloomberg. Demand will then increase between 51.3-52.0GW over 19-20 August.
  • In contrast, French wind output is expected at 2.01-3.72GW, or load factors of 10-19% over the weekend before being at 10-14% load factors over 19-20 August– which could keep France at a discount to Germany.
  • France’s nuclear reactors were operating at 67% of full capacity on Friday morning, down from 68% on Thursday.
  • However, the 1.3GW Cattenom 3 and 880MW Bugey 4 are expected to return over 16-18 August, with the 1.3GW Cattenom 4 back online on 19 August, according to Bloomberg.