French, German Day-Ahead Spread Narrows to 7-session Low

The German and French Day-ahead power contracts diverged as higher wind load factors were forecast in the former country – weighing down on power prices – with the DE-FR premium narrowing to a seven-session low. Wind forecasts point to relatively low wind in both countries on 25 July – which could raise domestic power prices and widen the FR-DE spread amid stable French nuclear.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €65.86/MWh from €79.51/MWh on the previous day.
  
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €61.05/MWh from €53.88/MWh on the previous day.
• The German-French day ahead premium narrowed to just €4.81/MWh from €25.63/MWh in the previous. This is the lowest since 16 July when it was at a premium of €2.11/MWh.
• The hourly prices in Germany reached as high as €128.90/MWh for hours 07-08, although some delivery hours did clear negative.
• German wind is expected at 12.29GW, or a 19% load factor on 24 July, up from 9.46GW, or a 15% load factor forecast for today. Wind will then drop on 25 July to just a 6% load factor – which could lift prices from the previous day and narrow the DE-FR spread.
• German power demand on 24 July has been revised lower by around 120MW, with estimates over 25-27 July revised up by between 33-270MW. Demand is forecasted between 41.1-53.4GW over 24-28 July, ECMWF shows.
• In France, wind forecast points to output at 1.64GW, or an 8% load factor tomorrow, sharply down from 4.86GW, or a 24% load factor that was forecast for 23 July. Wind will then remain at around this load factor over 25-26 July.
• French nuclear availability was stable on the day at 73% as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• But EdF said on Monday planned outages due to corrosion at three of the following reactors may be extended by an average of 30 days (BG5, CHB2, DAM4, FLA1, PAL1, PAL3, PEN1, PEN2).