French-German M1 Spread Narrows

The French-German M1 power spread is narrowing today, amid more pronounced gains in the French market due to an unplanned outage extension and a slight upward revision in temperature forecasts while earlier losses in European carbon allowances limited gains in the German market. NW Europe is expected to see three cooling degree days in the next five days.

• France Base Power JUL 24 up 5.2% at 50.14 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power JUL 24 up 1.1% at 71.5 EUR/MWh
• TTF Gas JUL 24 up 1.8% at 34.7 EUR/MWh
• EUA Dec 24 up 0.13% at 67.44 EUR/MT
• TTF has recovered after falling to a low of €33.64/MWh yesterday with support from hot weather across Europe this week, although stable fundamentals and forecast of a cooler start to July are limiting upside gains.
• EU ETS Dec 24 has reversed losses from this morning to trade slightly higher on the day after falling to the lowest level since 30 April this week. The next EUA EU CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
• NW Europe is expected to have a daily average of three cooling degree days for the 1-5 days forecast period, which is two days above the 10-year average, according to WSI.
• In Germany, forecasts suggested low wind output until the start of next week, when wind is expected to pick up. Output is forecast at 4.1GW-15.33GW during base load between 26 June and 2 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 9.97GW to 30.1GW between 26 June and 4 July during peak-load hours according to SpotRenewables.
• Power demand in Germany is at a maximum of 63.32GW on Tuesday and of 63.41GW on Wednesday.
• In France, nuclear availability was stable on the day at 70% as of Tuesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• The unplanned outage at the 880MW Bugey 5 reactor has been extended until 2 July, from 26 June previously scheduled. The restart of the 1.5GW Chooz reactor has been delayed by one day until 27 June, after which the reactor will gradually ramp up output.
• French power demand is forecast at a peak of 49.97GW on Tuesday and rise further to a maximum of 51.87GW on Wednesday according to Entso-E.
• The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested temperatures are expected to stay above the seasonal normal until 1 June, extending the warmer-than-usual period slightly, after which temperatures are forecast to drop below normal slightly. Maximum temperatures in Paris are forecast to reach 30C on 27 June.
• In France, forecasts suggested wind output between 1.6GW to 8.34GW during base load from 26 June to 4 July. Solar PV output is forecast at 4.61GW to 8.84GW during peak load from 26 June until 5 July according to SpotRenewables.