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Fresh Lows Back To Early April, Supply/Demand Headwinds Persist

IRON ORE

Iron ore sits just up from recent lows. The active SGX contract was last around $103/ton. Earlier lows were at $101.95/ton, levels last seen in early April. Lows during that period were near $94.50/ton.

  • Focus remains on downside momentum and whether we can see a test of $100/ton. Inventory levels at China ports remain elevated, albeit with a steady trend in recent weeks.
  • Supply from key markets such as Australia and Brazil remains firm in terms of weekly flow figures.
  • On the demand side, the recent run of data outcomes hasn't boosted optimism, at least in an aggregate sense. The Citi China economic surprise index is back in negative territory, albeit above earlier 2024 lows.
  • The generally trajectory around property related equity indices also remains skewed to the downside, with the recent correction lower in iron ore lining up well with these moves.
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