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Fresh Lows Back To Oct Last Year, $100/Ton Level Within Sight

IRON ORE
The active Singapore contract for iron ore is making fresh lows back to late October last year. We were last at $104.655ton, around 4.3% weaker for the session so far, and more than offsetting yesterday's +1.9% bounce.
  • The technical focus will now shift to whether we can test the $100/ton, which we haven't been under since August of last year.
  • There doesn't appear to be any fresh catalysts for today's fresh downshift. Familiar factors have been cited in terms of concerns around China's steel demand outlook, particularly as we enter what is typically the peak demand period.
  • Some analysts have also noted the shift in focus from the authorities around China's growth priorities, which are more orientated towards tech, chips and AI and away from traditional drivers such as the property sector and infrastructure.
  • On Friday we get the 1yr MLF decision in China, with no change expected. Feb house price data will also be out. We should also get new loans/aggregate finance data for Feb at some stage this week.
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