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Front End Reversing Gains, Claims In Focus Before 30Y Supply

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have pushed back to the low end of the day’s range having retraced a rally on initial Japan earthquake headlines as tsunami threats were downgraded.
  • They still sit firmer on the day after a session that pre-earthquake was light on headlines.
  • Cash yields are 0-1.7bp lower on the day as they modestly extend yesterday’s late rally on equity weakness and arguably some softer details within credit data.
  • The long end leads the rally for some minor flattening payback after yesterday’s sizeable steepening as the 10Y auction tailed by 3bps along with a solid increase in dealer take-up.
  • 2s10s at -3.7bps is off overnight highs of -0.5bps, which also remained a little shy of Monday’s +2bp (highest since mid-2022). Today’s 30Y supply keeps long-end supply in focus with 5s30s still elevated at 48.6bps.
  • TYU4 at 113-06+ (+ 10) is off a high of 113-14 but having remained within yesterday’s range throughout, on strong volumes of 465k. Support is seen at 112-21 (Aug 2 low) but declines are deemed corrective with resistance at 114-03 (Aug 6 high).
  • Data: Jobless claims (0830ET), Wholesale inventories/sales Jun F/Jun (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Barkin NABE webinar (1500ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $25B 30Y Bond auction - 912810UC0 (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 4W, $90B 8W Bill auctions (1130ET)
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