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FT Survey Sees Less Than Three 2024 Cuts, Trump Fed Chair Shortlist

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have cooled slightly to edge lower from Friday’s close, but still hold onto 74bp of cuts for 2024 heading with Wednesday’s FOMC in mind.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 0.5bp Mar, 2.5bp May, 16bp Jun, 26.5bp Jul and 74bp Dec.
  • The weekend saw an FT-Chicago Booth poll of academic economists eye two or fewer cuts this year, starting between July and September, concerning struggles with the “last mile” to the inflation target.
  • The WSJ meanwhile reports that influential economic advisers to Trump have shortlisted three potential candidates for Fed chair: Kevin Warsh, Keven Hassett and one of Trump’s advisers themselves, Arthur Laffer. Powell’s term as chair expires in 2026.

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