FTN Financial's Jim Vogel...........>

US DATA PREVIEW: FTN Financial's Jim Vogel forecasts Fri's headline Mar jobs at

"225k based on ongoing strength in manufacturing, strong hiring plans, and an

expected bounce in consumer spending foreshadowed by  better-than-expected car

sales." After last months AHE miss was tempered by the 313k blowout NFP, Vogel

says "March forecast of .3% growth will correct that error." Bottom line, Vogel

adds that "economists appear to be forecasting individual components of the

labor report rather than starting with a coherent macro view.  That's

understandable against a confusing employment/wages backdrop that confounds the

FOMC. But, a piecemeal approach reduces the value of trading the actual report

versus expectations. To position for rate moves after the morning release, look

for a minimum combination of 200k jobs, .3% average hourly earnings increase

from February, and 4.0% unemployment." Vogel concludes "if rates rise and any

one number doesn't meet those thresholds, look for something to buy."