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Further Analyst Views On Copom Meeting

BRAZIL
  • DI swap rates remain c.25bp higher on the day at the long end, following the hawkish Copom meeting last night, which was accompanied by a surprising 5-4 split on the board. As noted, all four of the dissenters who voted for a 50bp cut were appointed by the government, and with BCB Governor Campos Neto set to stand down at the end of this year this has raised concerns regarding the leadership transition.
  • Itaú note that the four dissenters voted for a 50bp cut despite agreeing with the generally hawkish assessment of the inflation outlook. They expect to learn more about the committee's views with the release of next Tuesday’s minutes. For the moment, Itaú expect another 25bp move at the next Copom meeting, which has a non-zero chance of being the last in their view.
  • Meanwhile, Pantheon also note that this was a hawkish cut, suggesting that policymakers will continue to cut rates by 25bp at the coming meetings, ending this year at 9%. Nonetheless, they cannot rule out the possibility that the BCB may pause its easing cycle if the fiscal situation deteriorates further and/or the Fed delays its rate-cutting cycle beyond September.
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