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Further Pullback In Long-End Yields, Borrowing Estimates Today’s Highlights

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have rallied overnight, potentially reflecting an intensification in Middle East geopolitics after Israel retaliated to a rocket strike from Lebanon over the weekend.
  • Treasuries did initially rally with the Asia open but have rallied further since then along with larger moves in EGBs suggesting other factors are at play. It comes ahead of an important week for risk events including but certainly not limited to decisions from the FOMC, BoJ and BoE as well as Treasury’s quarterly Refunding process.
  • Cash yields sit 1.5-4bp lower, with declines led by the long-end. The 10Y yield of 4.159% at typing is close to recent lows of 4.14% from Jul 17 after which would be lows since March.
  • TYU4 is 1+ ticks off the earlier new recent high of 111-15+ (+ 09) on solid cumulative volumes of 330k.
  • The bull theme continues, with tentative clearance of 111-15 (Jul 17 high) watched to see if it could set sights on 111-31 (Fibo projection).
  • Treasury: Marketable borrowing estimates (1500ET), to be followed by the full QRA on Wednesday morning.
  • Data: Dallas Fed mfg Jul (1030ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W, $70B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
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