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Futures Are Holding The Overnight Uptick After The CPI Prints In Line

JGBS

JGB futures are holding the overnight uptick, +6 compared to settlement levels, in early Tokyo trade after National CPI prints in line.

  • Japan's national July CPI data printed in line with market expectations. The headline printed at 3.3% y/y, which was also the June outcome. The ex-fresh food print was 3.1%y/y (prior 3.3%), while ex-fresh food and energy was 4.3% y/y, also in line with expectations (prior 4.2%). The core measure which strips out all food and energy was 2.7% y/y, versus 2.6% in June.
  • So, whilst headline inflation and core (ex-fresh food) have moved comfortably off earlier 2023 highs, the sticky core (ex-fresh food and energy) and services inflation uptick are likely to be BoJ watchpoints.
  • Cash JGBs are cheaper with yields 0.2bp to 1.6bp higher (40-year). The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.4bp at 0.649%, above BoJ's YCC old limit of 0.50% but below its new hard limit of 1.0%.
  • Swap spreads are mixed with rates -0.3bp to +0.2bp. Swap spreads are narrower across the curve.
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