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Futures Cheaper But Near Session Highs, Light Local Calendar

JGBS

In early afternoon dealing, JGB futures are holding weaker but near session highs, -16 compared to the settlement levels.

  • There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag. Today, the local calendar is empty apart from an auction for Enhanced-Liquidity of 5-15.5-year JGBs.
  • (Dow Jones) The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its policy rate twice by 1Q 2025, Morgan Stanley says in a research note. Takeshi Yamaguchi, chief Japan economist at the U.S. investment bank, maintains his base case for a 15bps increase in July 2024 to bring the policy rate to 0.25%, but now expects another 25bps rate increase in January 2025.
  • Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's sell-off.
  • Cash JGBs are slightly cheaper across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.3bps higher at 0.867% after setting a fresh YTD high of 0.884% earlier today.
  • The swaps curve has twist-steepened, with rates 3bps lower to 0.5bp higher. Swap spreads are tighter across maturities.
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