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Futures Holding Richer, Rinban Operations Today Covering 1-25-Year JGBs

JGBS

JGB futures are holding richer in Tokyo morning trade, +10 compared to settlement levels.

  • Japan’s balance of trade swung unexpectedly to a surplus in June — the first since July 2021, as imports plunged 12.9% and export growth accelerated a tad. The trade surplus came to Y43bn. Analysts had forecast a Y46.7bn deficit. The value of exports rose 1.5%, led by shipments of cars and construction machinery. Imports were dragged down by a 36.2% drop in crude and a 37.5% decline in coal. (See link)
  • The cash JGB curve bull flattens with the benchmark 10-year yield 0.5bp lower at 0.461%, below the BoJ's YCC limit of 0.50%.
  • ICYMI, a Blomberg survey of economists has seen the timing of a policy shift pushed back to October. 82% of economists surveyed see no change in July, with 18% expecting a shift. This is down from around a third expecting a shift in July when the last poll was conducted in June. (See link)
  • Today will see BoJ Rinban operations covering 1- to 25-Year JGBs.
  • The swaps curve has also bull flattened with swap spreads tighter out to the 20-year and wider beyond.
  • Later today the local calendar sees June data for Tokyo Condos For Sale and Machine Tool Orders (Final). Tomorrow sees the release of National CPI data.
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