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Futures Maintain Offered Tone, US-JP 10yr Differential Off Recent Highs

JGBS

JGB futures have maintained an offered tone in the first part of Monday trade. We sit at 144.21, -.33 at the lunchtime break. This is close to lows from last week (144.17). A clean break lower would likely see bears target a move back sub 143.50, early Nov lows.

  • These moves are consistent with generally softer trends in bond futures elsewhere. Focus will be on whether US 10yr futures break sub Friday session lows (near 107-08, last 107.10).
  • Cash JGB yields remain on the front foot. 10yr is back above 0.88%, with the 20-40yr tenors seeing slightly larger yield gains. The 20-yr is back near 1.61% (+5bps).
  • The US-JP 10yr government bond yield differential sits at +377bps, slightly down from recent highs.
  • In swaps, the 10yr is +4bps higher to 1.07%.
  • The market has ignored the earlier PPI result, which continues to point to softer headline CPI outcomes. On the supply side focus is on tomorrow's 5yr auction.
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