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(H2) Fading End-2021 Strength


Coming up in the Asia-Pac session on Tuesday:


Corrective Bounce


Bearish Threat Following Friday’s Sell-Off


Finds Support Below The 50-Day EMA

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T-Notes pull lower at the re-open, moving further away from Friday’s NY high, last -0-12 at 131-02+.

  • News out of South Africa re: the Omicron variant remains mixed, although the severity of the COVID strain appears to remain a little more limited than some had feared. Meanwhile, over in the U.S., Dr Fauci pointed to “encouraging” early signs, with booster jabs potentially offering a “considerable degree” of protection vs. the strain, although he cautioned against drawing hasty conclusion. This cautious degree of optimism when it comes to the variant is likely pressuring T-Notes early this week.
  • To recap, Friday saw the cash Tsy curve bull flatten in the wake of a somewhat mixed NFP print, leaving 2s ~2bp richer and 10s ~10bp richer come the bell, with the latter leading the broader bid.
  • In terms of the data breakdown, headline NFPs provided a notable miss vs. broader expectations, while wages were a touch softer than expected. Elsewhere, unemployment and underemployment both ticked lower, while the participation rate nudged higher. That made for 2-way trade in the wake of the release, before the broader bid kicked in.
  • Weakness in equity indices was observed, with Omicron worry evident (at least in the terms of the contagion factor as opposed to mortality threat presented), which provided another leg of support for Tsys. Although equities did catch a bit of a bid into the close, paring a chunk of their losses.
  • The economic docket is light in Asia. Looking ahead, the NY docket provides nothing in the way of material risk events with the Fed now in its pre-meeting blackout period and a lack of notable data releases evident on Monday.