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Gapped lower overnight

BUNDS
  • Bund has in turn seen a similar price action to the Euribor overnight, after the ECB said that they expect the EU inflation to remain elevated next year.
  • The contract gaped from 130.59 down to 130.35, and printed its lowest level since the 22nd August.
  • The contract is unaffected by the UK data miss, and next support will be seen at the 130.00 figure, and resistance will be at 131.00.
  • Given the likely divergence, it will be interesting to see the Gilt/Bund spread when the UK opens 30 minutes.
  • Main focus today is on US CPI/real Earnings.
  • SUPPLY; UK £3.75bn 10yr (Equates to 26k Gilt) could weigh, Italy 2026, 2030, 2040, 2053 (Equates combined to a large 74.5k BTP) will weigh. Germany 2052, 2053 (equates to 15.1k Buxl) should weigh into the bidding deadlines. US sells $20bn of 30yr re opening.

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