Gas Mid-Day Summary: TTF Hold Onto Small Gains

TTF front month is trading higher today amid hot weather in southern Europe, spurring cooling demand, and a downward revision northwest European wind output, while healthy storage levels and increasing supplies from Norway are providing downside.

• TTF AUG 23 up 1.6% at 25.51€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 2.2% at 45.88€/MWh
• Norwegian gas flows to the UK and Northwest European terminal were at 326.4mcm/d today. The Aasta Hansteen field saw marginal capacity cuts amid an unplanned outage on 18-19 July.
• The latest ECMWF weather forecast for Northwest Europe suggests temperatures are expected to be below the seasonal norm from later this week with temperatures rising above the seasonal average later next week for several days. Temperatures in southern Europe are forecast well above the seasonal norm, spurring cooling demand.
• Forecasts for wind output in northwest Europe have been revised down for later in July.
• European gas in store rises to 81.81% full on 16 July compared to the five-year average of 66.76%. European net storage injections rose back above the five-year average on 15-16 July.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in September and October, to Europe in November.
• JKM-TTF Aug 23 down -1.2$/mmbtu at 2.17$/mmbtu