Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Gains Ground

Front month TTF has gained ground as the ongoing cold weather is boosting demand for heating, while rising tensions in the Middle East and LNG vessel diversions are adding to the upside.

• TTF FEB 24 up 1.6% at 28.15€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 2.5% at 28.74€/MWh
• Cold temperatures in NW Europe this week are expected to turn to above normal from around Jan 22 and then remain above until the end of the month.
• German natural gas consumption last week rose 11.9% above the 2018-2021 average, driven by increased heating demand as temperatures fell well below the seasonal norm,
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated back up to 359.8mcm/d and just below the record level from mid-December.
• European natural gas storage was down to 77.99% full on Jan 16 according to GIE data.
• Algerian gas flows to Italy at Mazara del Vallo were down or 33.2% on the Jan. 17 average rate, according to Snam Rete Gas data, cited by Bloomberg.
• The recent freeze in the US has disrupted scheduled LNG exports out of the US, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.
• The Freeport LNG export facility shut the liquefaction train 2 on 16 January and train 3 tripped on 17 January amid mechanical issues.
• There are currently no LNG vessels transiting the Suez Canal amid heightened tensions off the coast of Yemen according to Kpler.
• Asian LNG demand is projected to increase by 5% to 12m mt in 2024, following the 2% growth in 2023, according to Wood Mackenzie.